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Following more than 2 months of calm, the volcano is probably about to enter a new eruptive phase, a special bulletin of Ecuador’s Geophysical Institute (IGPEN) informs.
Following a steep increase in seismic activity last Sunday afternoon, a small ash emission occurred at 15h49 local time, producing a plume rising approx. 1 km and causing light ash fall.
The black color of the ash suggests that it originated from a new batch of fresh magma that started to arrive in the summit crater.
Since Sunday evening, the volcano’s seismic activity has continued to increase, in particular with regards to so-called long period earthquakes, believed to be signs of fluid movements (magma, gasses, water) inside the volcano. The observed seismicity is somewhat similar to the precursor activity that preceded the eruptions of Tungurahua in February and April this year. Surface activity could for most of the time not be observed due to bad weather.
In addition to the increase in seismic activity, significant inflation of the NE flank has occurred over the past weeks, another indication that magma started to rise within the volcano. The volcano observatory mentions that similar inflation patterns were observed shortly before the explosive eruptions on 18 October 2013, 1 February and 4 April this year.
Based on these monitoring observations and the typical behavior of the volcano during past eruptions, it is likely that the volcano is at the beginning of another, potentially violent eruptive phase.
This could include persistent strombolian activity, and/or increasingly strong ash emissions as well as sudden and very violent vulcanian-type explosions with the potential of forming dangerous pyroclastic flows.
Significant ash falls could also occur in downwind locations. The most threatened areas include the stretches between Pelileo and Banos and Banos and Penipe.
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