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Violent Typhoon Halong continues to stir up the ocean east of the Philippines Monday Morning. This is the highest ranking on the JMAs intensity scale of TS to Violent.
The storm has now started to turn WNW as well rounding the west pac high to the north west.
As we look ahead the forecast is looking more and more like the CENTER of Halong will miss Okinawa Honto to the east and push towards Kagoshima on Thursday and Friday. Maybe even pushing up the coast towards the Kanto Plain through the weekend.
Good news max winds in Okinawa probably will be Tropical Storm Strength based on the current track. Current forecast would indicate 35kts sustained with gust up to 55kts.
This would means near or maybe even less than what we saw a few days ago as Tropical Storm Nakri Passed to the west.
As we seen with Nakri this is still enough to blow stuff around so be prepped at the very least for this passing storm. Furthermore this still could change though so we will continue to keep you updated. I know for the US Military in Okinawa TCCOR 4 has been issued. JMA has also put Okinawa under a 70% probability of 50kt winds or more as seen on the graphic to the left indicated by the red polygon.
Key thing to note this is still several days out and the FORECAST COULD CHANGE. A waver by only 50-100km in either direction of the center line could mean the difference between calm winds and sunny skies or being inside the core of the storm with white out conditions and flooding rains. Thus continue to check the forecast!
Thursday morning gale force winds will start to set in. Scattered showers could bring localized downpours and waves up to 4-5 meters high will be present.
Thursday Night the worst of the conditions will likely start to set in and during the overnight hours Tropical Storm Strength winds (35-45kts Sustained Likely) will blow from the north east across the island.
Friday winds will switch from the west and then the south west with Tropical Storm Strength winds tapering off by the afternoon hours.
Further North
The islands that will take the brunt of the storm though is the Amami islands and southern Kagoshima. Here Halong is expected to make landfall as still a very strong Typhoon packing damaging winds and heavy rains which could be the bigger threat.
The main reason for that is after Nakri much of the area has already been saturated. In Shikoku several locations recorded well over 1,000mm of rainfall in a 3 day period. This has resulted in wide spread flooding and landslides. Any more rain on top of that could make for very dangerous conditions.
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