Typhoon ‘drought’ in northwest Pacific region is on the verge of breaking records

Though typhoons are typical in the northwest Pacific Ocean this month, Central Weather Bureau (CWB) records yesterday showed that none has formed in the region so far this month.

The bureau data showed that Typhoon Genevieve was the only typhoon this month, but it formed in the eastern Pacific region and crossed the international date line to the northwest Pacific.

The absence of regionally generated typhoons in August would be a new record that has held since 1958, when the bureau began to issue typhoon alerts.

Previously, the bureau forecast that 29 to 32 typhoons would form in this region this year, higher than the average of 25.7 per year. It further predicted that three to five typhoons would affect Taiwan.

Cheng Ming-dean (鄭明典), director of the bureau’s weather forecasting center, said the bureau is likely to lower its forecasts of the number of typhoons to be formed in the northwest Pacific region, as well as the number of typhoons that would affect the nation this year.

Despite the unusual atmospheric conditions in the northwest Pacific, Cheng said that people should still be on the alert, because typhoons could still be formed next month and in October.

Statistics from the bureau showed that an average of 5.6 typhoons are formed in the northwest Pacific in August, which is the month with the highest number of typhoons.

Though this month ends on Sunday, the bureau said that the chance of typhoons in the region would still be lower than normal, because of the influence from a strong high-pressure air system.

Prior to this year, CWB records showed that 1977, 1979 and 1980 were years in which the number of the typhoons formed in August was lower than the climate average, with each having just two typhoons.

This year would set the record for the least typhoons formed in August, even including the one formed in the East Pacific.

Commenting on the factors behind the phenomenon, Cheng said India’s summer monsoon is weak this year.

Specifically, the southwest monsoon trough almost disappeared, causing the high-pressure system to spread toward the tropics and making it difficult for typhoons to develop and grow, he said.

Cheng said that the El Nino effect, which generally helps typhoon development, has yet to appear, adding that surface sea temperatures are close to or lower than average in some regions.

All these factors explain why so few typhoons have formed this month, he said.