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The Central Pacific Hurricane Center says Ana is currently 820 miles (1320 km) ESE of Hilo with maximum sustained winds at 65 mph (100 km/h), and moving WNW or 295 degrees at 8 mph (13 km/h).
This general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles, 95 km from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb, 29.44 inches.
Latest satellite imagery indicates that Ana continues to become better organized with visible imagery indicating over-shooting cloud tops near the llcc. Latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates also indicate an intensification trend.
The forward motion of Ana has increased slightly over the past several hours. Ana is tracking generally westward under the influence of a deep layer ridge centered north of the system. Latest analyses depict strong southerly shear between Ana and the main Hawaiian islands due to the gradient between a closed low aloft west of the islands and the ridge north of Ana. However global models remain steadfast in forecasting a continued westward motion for the low aloft.
With the low retreating the expectation is that the ridge north of the system will become slightly better established through Wednesday keeping the system on a general westward track. The ridge will slowly slide southeastward Thursday and Friday with Ana then expected to move on an increasingly northwesterly track toward the end of the forecast period.
A mid-latitude trough passing north of the system will weaken the steering currents while also introducing a slightly less favorable shear profile. The interaction between Ana and the passing trough introduces increasing uncertainty to the track forecast at the longer ranges. The updated forecast is faster than the previous and shifted slightly to the left.
The intensity forecast closely follows the previous calling for Ana to become a hurricane by Wednesday but peaking at a slightly higher intensity on days 2 and 3 with Ana gradually weakening on days 4 and 5 due to the aforementioned changing shear profile, the injection of slightly drier air and marginally warm water temperatures along the forecast track.
Interests in the main Hawaiian islands should monitor the progress of this system through the week. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
This is the second tropical cyclone that has formed in the Central Pacific for the 2014 season.
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