WARNING – Intense Earthquake Activity and Increased Likelihood of a Volcanic Eruption in Iceland

About 4700 earthquakes since July 4th

The earthquake swarm on the Reykjanes Peninsula continues, with over 1300 earthquakes detected since midnight today, 6 July. Since the beginning of the swarm on 4 July, the total number of earthquakes exceeds 4700. From midnight today, over six earthquakes exceeding magnitude 3.5 have occurred, with the largest earthquakes continuing to be felt in the south-west of the country. Overall, the intensity of the swarm has decreased slightly, both in terms of number of earthquakes and earthquake magnitudes.

The spatial distribution of earthquake epicentres is on a northeast-southwest lineament between Fagradalsfjall and Keilir, mostly concentrated just north of the mountain Litli Hrútur. The latest ground deformation (GPS) observations show significant movements, indicating magma propagation in the region where earthquakes are highly concentrated. The likely explanation is a northeast-southwest trending magma intrusion at 2 to 4 km depth. The intrusion is close enough to the Earth’s surface that a volcanic eruption could occur without further escalations in seismic activity or ground deformation.

Based on the present assessment, two outcomes are possible. The seismicity could decrease progressively without magma reaching the surface. Alternatively, the magma body could continue to be driven towards the surface, resulting in an eruption close to where seismicity is currently concentrated. However, magma reaching the surface anywhere in the region between Fagradalsfjall and Keilir cannot be excluded. Of the two possible outcomes, a volcanic eruption occurring within days or weeks seems more likely.

While the earthquake swarm is ongoing, the main hazard is strong seismic ground motion due to the largest earthquakes in the sequence and potential triggered earthquakes on nearby faults. The largest earthquakes in the swarm have caused localised rockfalls, so people are advised against walking close to rock cliffs or steep slopes in the area around Keilir, Fagradalsfjall and Kleifarvatn.

Courtesy of Icelandic Meteorological office

https://tinyurl.com/4k267smy