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Latest Storm Information
Ignacio has likely reached its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane and will now weaken the next few days as it moves north of the Hawaiian Islands.
The expected weakening trend is due to an increase in wind shear and slightly cooler water temperatures. The increase in wind shear is thanks to the proximity of the subtropical jet over the Hawaiian Islands. As Ignacio gains latitude, it will likely face increased shear, which tends to push convection away from the center of tropical cyclones.
Another Hawaii Threat?
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm watch for the Big Island and Maui County as of Sunday morning.
Over the next few days, Ignacio will track northwest. Computer forecast models were fairly consistent with a track north of the Hawaiian Islands Monday into Tuesday. Though, given Ignacio’s wind field, it’s possible tropical storm-force winds may brush the Big Island on Monday.
Ignacio Watches/Warnings
Watches mean conditions are possible within 48 hours. Warnings mean conditions are expected within 36 hours.
Also, some outer rainbands may produce locally heavy rainfall at least in the eastern Hawaiian Islands Monday into Tuesday, particularly over mauka (mountain) locations.
Dangerous surf will propagate to the east-facing shores of Hawaii, particularly the Big Island, in the coming days, as well.
Several tropical systems have threatened Hawaii over the past few weeks, but most of them changed course and/or weakened before directly impacting the islands.
Climatologically speaking, virtually all hurricanes near the Hawaiian Islands since 1950 have approached from the southeast, south or southwest. Those approaching from the east tend to either weaken quickly or shift north of the islands. Iselle in 2014 was one notable exception, however.
Nonetheless, interests in Hawaii should continue to monitor Ignacio into early next week.
Projected Path
Courtesy of weather.com
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